Forecast: Airline industry growth expected to be heaviest in Asia-Pacific

The aviation industry is at the beginning of an upswing, which will impact Charleston as Boeing Co. continues building its local plants for 787 Dreamliners, according to the vice president for marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Randy Tinseth, the keynote speaker this afternoon during the Charleston Metro Chamber of Commerce’s Economic Outlook Conference, said passenger and cargo traffic increased in 2010 after declines the year before. In 2010, Boeing sold 530 airplanes, more than triple the company’s estimate at the beginning of the year.

This year has started well, Tinseth said, and Boeing is increasing production rates of its planes. The company is building two 787s each month, which is expected to increase to 10 each month — three in South Carolina — by 2013.

Tinseth said Boeing looks at 20-year forecasts, which are currently showing growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The region is expected to overtake North America as the largest air travel market during 2011 or 2012, Tinseth said.

Today, about one-third of air travel touches Asia. In 20 years, Tinseth said, a little less than half of air travel will touch that continent.

Boeing expects the world economy to grow about 2% each year for the next two decades. That growth should increase the number of airline travelers and airline traffic.

Demand for airplanes also is expected to nearly double, Tinseth said, from 19,000 planes currently to 36,000 planes. More than half of that demand will be from China, India and South America.

Despite the positive outlook, Tinseth said Boeing faces challenges, such as increasing efficiency and reducing its carbon footprint.

Between 10% and 15% of fuel is wasted by planes waiting on runways and not flying direct routes between cities.

Tinseth said the company is pushing for more efficient planes, like the 787 Dreamliner, which has a wing that is 7% more efficient because of improved aerodynamics.

Tinseth said the plane is doing well in its flight tests and has accumulated about 1,100 flights. It should be certified later this year, and the first 787 from South Carolina is expected to be delivered in the middle of 2012.