Air freight services forecast to climb
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has released their growth forecast that project air freight traffic usage through 2016. Based on 2013 preliminary figures measured in freight ten kilometers, the data reveals an uptick in both domestic and international scheduled air freight services over the next three years.
In 2013, total worldwide traffic rose by 0.4 percent following a 2012 decrease of -1.0 percent. Although 2013 growth was a promising turn, the projected growth accumulations in 2014 of 3.7 percent, 2015 of 4.2 percent and 2016 of 4.4 percent are exceptional.
The region showing the most rapid growth throughout the next three years remains the Middle East with projected 2014, 2015 and 2016 growth rates being 12.1, 12.3 and 12.4 respectively. The strong showing comes from strong Middle East carrier performance as well as an increase in world trade activities. However, these increases are playing catch up to 2012 data that had the region topping 13.9 percent.
Continued gains in economic recovery and regional trade improvements are spurring European air freight traffic growth. Recording a drop in 2013 performance by -0.1 percent, Europe is forecast to step up the pace over the next three years by 2.7, 3.1 and 3.2 percent.
The forecast for Latin America and Caribbean is also promising with 3.0, 3.5 and 3.7 percentage increases expected to follow a recorded 2.7 percent performance in 2013.
Although North America air cargo projections remain relatively flat until 2016 with data showing a mere 1.4, 1.6 and 1.7 percentage stride over the following three years, those figures jettison above 2013 figures of a disheartening loss of -4.9 percent.
The Asia and Pacific region also shows hope after only increasing a mere 0.2 percent in 2013. Capturing 40 percent of the world’s air freight traffic volume in 2013, the region consisting of Asia-Pacific is expected to increase by 3.0, 3.5 and 3.7 percent over the projected 2014, 2015 and 2016 periods. The increase is due to greater demand from both the U.S. and Europe, whose economies are improving and demand is rising for area manufactured goods.
Africa is the only region that shows a persistent decrease in the ICAO’s three-year forecast. Although increases of 3.1, 3.4 and 3.6 percent in 2014, 2015 and 2016 are projected, those figures are below the 4.0 percent showing for 2013 and dreadfully lower than the 13.9 percent increase turned in for 2012.
Growth rates in worldwide air cargo traffic of 4.2 and 4.4 percent mirror annual expectations of 5.3 and 5.1 percent world trade growth rates in 2015 and 2016.